You have probably read at various times that the Pacific Northwest is due for a major earthquake, but no one can really predict when that will occur, because “soon” in geologic time covers centuries. Similarly, it is frequently written that the world is due for another round of pandemic influenza. This idea is derived from historic patterns, but can’t be predictably scheduled. Both things could reasonably occur tomorrow, or within the next few years, or later than that.
Fortunately, the high level of uncertainty in disaster preparedness can be mitigated by the fact that taking steps to prepare is usually beneficial on multiple levels, and some things can be prepared for at the same time. The April through June newsletters covered earthquake preparedness, but now that we are in flu season, this is a good time to go over pandemics.
Any pandemic illness can cause similar issues, but the focus is usually on influenza, so we shall focus on that as well.
We speak of “the flu”, but there are really several different variations. Influenza A is one genus. Other genera include Influenza B and Influenza C. All three can cause illness in human, but we will focus on Influenza A. This genus has only one species, but that species has many variants and subtypes. For each flu season, different strains are prominent. Flu shots will generally contain vaccines for the two or three most common strains of that season, causing you to produce antibodies for that strain. This may help if you are exposed to a different strain, but there is no guarantee.
The difference between flu season and pandemic flu is the rate of infection. Normally a large portion of the population has antibodies to the common variants because of earlier exposure. When a new strain emerges, or one from decades ago returns, there are no existing defenses so many more people become ill.
This is not to say that when it is just the regular flu season everything is fine. In an average flu season, the Unites States sees about 36,000 deaths, 200,000 hospitalizations, and billions of dollars in expenses in lost productivity. In contrast, the Spanish flu of 1918 resulted in between 500,000 and 675,000 deaths. With the exponentially higher rate of infection, a pandemic can result in disruption of health care as medical personnel have too much of a workload while being exposed to infection. It may also disrupt businesses, transportation, and schools.
Many of the steps that would be recommended for preparing for the next pandemic are things that are more in the realm of governments and international organizations (like preparing strategic stockpiles of vaccines and medicines). However, there are things you can do to prepare yourself and your family, and they are not necessarily even that difficult.
Maintain your own health: Even when the general population has no antibodies, not everyone gets sick. Keep your individual immune system strong by getting proper nutrition, adequate sleep, and exercise, as well as not allowing other stressors to wear your body down.
Stay clean: Filth provides a breeding ground for all sorts of diseases. In addition to keeping your living and work spaces clean, you should keep your body clean. An important part of this is frequent hand washing. Do not go crazy with antibiotic soap, because in addition to not killing viruses, it may kill helpful microbes and lead to an increase in resistance to antibiotic medicines. However, regular soap and water used frequently can be very helpful.
The new rule is to sneeze or cough into your sleeve (or elbow) instead of your hands. This may seem gross, but your hand touches doorknobs, plates, the food that you eat, and other people. Filling it with germs is poor form. Also, since you are touching all of those things, it brings us back to frequent hand washing.
Stay well supplied: Even if a pandemic does not shut down businesses or transportation (thus closing the stores), going out may not be the best way to keep yourself healthy. Government organizations recommend having at least a two-week supply on hand (and we believe in having at least three months worth).
This supply should also include non-food items, like toiletries and other items that you use in your daily life. It is also wise to keep current supplies of medicines and pain relievers. If it becomes difficult to get medical care, having your own items to help alleviate pain and fever may make you more comfortable.
Stay financially stable: You may have to miss work either due to your own illness or temporary shutdowns. Have a savings cushion so that missed days are not catastrophic.
Help your employer prepare: Any business should have contingency plans for various catastrophes, but that doesn’t mean that they do. Having your employer consider solutions like telecommuting now may help things continue to run smoothly later. There are online tools and checklists that can be used to facilitate the discussion.
http://www.pandemicflu.gov/
http://www.pandemictoolkit.com/
Do keep perspective. Even the Spanish flu ultimately only infected about 28 percent of the population. It is possible to stay healthy, it is possible to recover, and it is possible to be prepared to weather the storm.
1 comment:
I avoided focusing on the flu shot when I wrote this, because there are always a lot of people against it, and for an actual pandemic, the issue is probably that a strain came up that they were not prepared for. However, I think it is worth mentioning that the flu swept through our household a few weeks ago, and the only person who did not get it was my mother, who was also the only one to get a flu shot.
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