Sunday, March 19, 2023

Things to watch out for: COVID

It has been three years and six million, eight hundred seventy-three thousand, four hundred seventy-seven deaths.

https://covid19.who.int/

I wrote that out because it is easy to just glance over the numbers, and perhaps ignore them.

That's not the whole story either, though. If all of that had happened back in 2020, and now it was over, that would be different. Also, any global data can feel vast enough to not quite register. 

If it helps, last week the United States lost 1706 people to Covid. Oregon lost 54. In Washington County, 4.1% of those in hospital beds are confirmed Covid cases.

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home

That is a lot better than it has been, but that is also a number that has fluctuated. Covid comes in different waves as different variants develop with different properties.

It is still real, it does still kill people, and as the declared emergency ends there will be fewer resources, even as we see that most precautions were rolled back some time ago. There are even some at work trying to stop voluntary precautionary measures, like New York City mayor Eric Adams asking that people remove masks in stores to prevent shoplifting. 

And yet, this is mostly stuff that I have written about before; why is it a new thing to watch out for?

The first one is a growing awareness of the long-term neurological effects.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brain/a-third-of-covid-survivors-suffer-neurological-or-mental-disorders-study-idUSKBN2BT2ZI

Yes, expect to see more people with anxiety and depression. Some of that could be the stress of the world in itself, but some of it could also be the toll having the disease takes. 

That by itself would be bad enough, but there is also an increased risk of death for 18 months since the time of infection:

https://www.escardio.org/The-ESC/Press-Office/Press-releases/covid-19-patients-retain-elevated-risk-of-death-for-at-least-18-months-after-inf 

The tendency toward clotting can explain stroke deaths and that had been known. This article focuses on cardiovascular disease and all of the ways that can lead to sudden death. Apparently atrial fibrillation (and strokes) had an elevated risk for a shorter period of time. The risk of myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease, heart failure, and deep vein thrombosis lasts longer.

There is some frightening anecdotal evidence of multiple Covid infections leading to early-onset dementia.

But actually, when I was starting working on this, I was mainly thinking about long Covid symptoms including Myalgic Encephalomyelitis/Chronic Fatigue Syndrome.

https://www.improvediagnosis.org/publications/improvedx-january-2022/understanding-me-cfs-and-long-covid-as-post-viral-conditions/

Because while the percentage lost from the work force through death is significant, the percentage lost through disability will be higher.

That does affect many individuals and families on a personal level, but on a broader level that is going to affect the workforce, and that is going to affect supply chains.

We have seen that before, early in the pandemic, but the direction we are heading in can only see that get worse.

These are the sort of problems that compound.

Early in the pandemic when hospital beds were full, it worsened health for others as it caused delays in treatment, and increased risk of picking up another infection while being treated.

Last year, as monkey pox started making headlines, there was a feeling of "What else now?"

How about leprosy?

https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/sri-lanka-was-winning-its-battle-leprosy-until-covid-19

Part of treating leprosy early is that it can prevent contagion as well as later disability. The time lost in Sri Lanka is going to have rippling effects.

It won't be leprosy here, but can we believe that a cavalier disregard for the health and welfare of others, fueled by capitalistic greed and deeply ignorant and hateful political bias...

Is there any reason to believe that would not cause significant harm?

Again, in my early conception of this series, it was going to be more of a reminder of getting in your food storage and looking ahead to buy other items and fill prescriptions early, so that supply chain issues cannot hurt you so much.

That is personal and family preparedness, and I believe in it, but as more comes into view we really need to all be helping each other.

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