Sunday, October 18, 2015

Cascadia Megaquake - Making things happen

I know a lot of people found "Unprepared" sobering, and that's fair, but I also found many reasons to be optimistic.

First of all I did not know that it was possible to fight liquefaction. I had never seen compaction grout before. Now I not only know it exists, but that it helped the Sendai airport. I did know that the Portland airport is in the liquefaction zone, so knowing there are options there is huge. Retrofitting at least a few runways would be a major boon if you want to be able to receive relief supplies.

Obviously it's not the only thing; if you can get the planes to land, but then don't have options to get trucks in or out, it's limited usefulness, but technology has found some amazing solutions. Seeing the hospital foundation built on springs, my first thought was that it didn't seem practical, but watching the side by side videos of how the building withstands the quake, that is amazing. There are options out there. Of course there is a problem with getting people to pay for it.

This is the other side of reaching out that I mentioned last week. There are a lot of things that can be done if popular support and political will can be mustered.

Not everything is huge. Through teachers and parents at Sunnyside school they have made some good strides. Retrofitting a building is expensive, but installing straps on cabinets to keep them from falling over and latches on the doors to keep items from falling out is much less expensive, and that will save lives. Getting the emergency buckets in each room, including class lists, and drilling the staff and students regularly, not only increases safety but will increase calm and a feeling of organization. Any parent teacher coalition should be able to take similar measures.

If that is all that is done, you should have a school where people are able to survive, and be ready for what comes after. The school may not be usable without massive repairs, which goes into recovery time. That requires a broader effort.

One of the communities covered was Seaside, where three out of four schools are in the tsunami zone. A proposal that seemed to have broad support ended up being defeated in an election, possibly because many of the home owners there are non-residents with vacation and rental properties. Perhaps that requires an outreach through the rental associations. Perhaps it requires applying for federal grants to secure funding that way.

My biggest concern that I had not previously considered is the Oregon Fuel Depot on the Willamette. There are old tanks full of fossil fuels in the liquefaction zone and right next to water, and it is the sole fuel location for the area. That means we are looking at twin catastrophes of a loss of fuel that will be vitally necessary and massive environmental contamination in an area that will already be under siege. Again, there is retrofitting that can be done, and could help so much. There is just not the will to do it.

This could be a good place to exert pressure. Whether that means writing to the companies and asking them to take measures, or writing to the government and getting them to exert pressure, I am not sure what will be most effective, but something needs to be done.

Companies can be encouraged to retrofit via tax incentives (though those should be written carefully to ensure that the work is actually done and done quickly). Local economies can be stimulated through construction projects. There are options here, but people need to get on it. A lot of people are, but sometimes it feels like it is just the geologists. We need more.

Here is one thought. Various areas flood regularly, including Tillamook. I had heard that this would frequently result in a loss of cows, until elevated stands were built, and the cows will go up and escape the flood waters.

I know that people take recurring losses of assets more seriously than future potential losses, so I understand the difference, but there is another lesson there. If you give cows a way to save themselves they will do it. Humans should be able to figure it out.

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